Minneapolis crime: Is it really up?

When crime hits the front page, sophists and politicians spring from the woodwork with cherrypicked or short-term numbers that make a real problem seem scarier than it is. Because crime is so terrifying and easily demagogued, I try to add context with a longer look.

The goal isn’t to minimize crime’s effects. Thanks to Twitter, I have a lot more friends on the North Side, who have the twin burdens of the highest crime rate and opportunists depicting their home as a hellhole. I’m interested in precision and intellectual integrity, not fear.

We now have 16 years of Minneapolis Uniform Crime Reports, and while they are not perfect, they allow a decent trend analysis for serious crimes citywide and in the city’s five precincts.

The charts below track crimes 2001–16 and 2010–16, January through July (so we can include 2016). There are citywide and North Side trend lines (dotted).

The North Side’s 4th precinct is the red line; downtown is green; Northeast is yellow; Southwest is purple, and the rest of the South Side is orange.

Since these involve crime reports, the recent North Side police slowdown shouldn’t have an effect. It’s possible people might report fewer crimes to the police, but there’s no way to document this.

The city has more people and downtown workers than in 2001, but I’m not factoring that into the analysis.

Let’s start with the headline crime:

Homicide

Homicides are down citywide and on the North Side. There are spikes — 2006, 2010, 2015 — but the trend is clear.

Aggravated assault

This the crime that’s been getting the most recent attention — the category includes shooting, the most serious domestics, and other assaults resulting in great bodily harm.

Compared to 2001, aggravated assaults are down a little (citywide) or flat (North Side). But start at 2010 and the crime is clearly up citywide and over North.

Politicians, residents, and law enforcement are reacting to a very real, growing problem.

Rape

Rape is another serious crime on the rise citywide, especially since 2010 — though it is down on the North Side. The recent two-year rise is fueled mostly by downtown, and Southwest Minneapolis, traditionally the safest precinct.

Rape is one of the most inconsistently reported crimes, but again, the data is apples-to-apples.

Robbery

One of Minneapolis’s untold success stories, at least statistically, is robbery’s decline. The most serious theft, involving force, is down citywide since 2001 and on the North Side since 2001 and 2010. It’s fair to say post-2010 rise citywide is really bouncing along a low floor.

Simple Assault

Another big success story, though the trend has started to reverse citywide.

Simple assaults include anything below significant bodily harm, as well as the lowest-level domestics.

Burglary

Yet another success — and unlike the others, dropping especially rapidly now. The North Side and citywide see big improvements.

Why? That’s beyond the scope of this numerical exercise, but hopefully someone has answers.

Larceny

Larceny is theft that doesn’t involve force or dwellings. Like the other serious property crimes, it’s down everywhere since 2001, yet flat since 2010.

Conclusions

Aggravated assaults and rapes are rising toward the most recent 2005–07 peak — here, the focus and worry are right. There’s no murder spree, and less serious violent and property crimes remain near historic lows.