Minneapolis 2021 city elections: a look back at 2017
It’s too early to make GOTV calls, so I thought I’d publish some data with the election a few days away. Note: I haven’t talked to any campaigns — that would be work — so I don’t know what the pros are thinking. But I do think a look back provides hope for change proponents like me!
The big issues on the ballot are Jacob Frey’s mayoralty & the Minneapolis Public Safety Amendment aka Question 2, which would fold cops into a new Public Safety Department, increase City Council policy power, and remove minimum staffing, among other facets.
A lot has changed since the last Minneapolis election — the police murder of George Floyd that ignited worldwide protests, the burning of the Third Precinct … even the Minneapolis 2040 plan, which increased neighborhood housing density and has proven to be a gateway drug for City Council haters-turned-Frey-allies (even if Frey signed it!).
Yet if you believe an internal poll released by a pro-Frey PAC — and you should be skeptical, at the very least — the 2021 election will look a lot like 2017. Here’s the poll’s top line:
The final 2017 result:
Eerily similar, even if Frey does a little better and the left (then Dehn, now Nezhad) does a little worse.
Again, not endorsing the poll — Team Frey are world-class manipulators — but it nicely sets up a look back at how 2017 votes rolled up. The Minnesota Secretary of State made these helpful maps of that year’s Ranked Choice results (Minneapolitans can rank up to three candidates):
You can see Frey (blue) dominated the wealthier southern tier of wards, which regularly churn out the highest voter turnout. He didn’t win a similar ward, 7, because another pro-cops white guy, Tom Hoch, took that. Hoch also won a fair chunk of the North Side, and what he didn’t went to Nekima Levy-Pounds (now Levy-Armstrong), the only Black major candidate four years ago.
Frey only took about 25% of the first-choice votes, but Minneapolis conservatives cleared the 2021 field for him, so it’s fair to roll up his & Hoch’s votes; in 2017, they finished 1–2 in firsts, with about … 44%, similar to what the 2021 internal poll shows.
Forty-four percent isn’t enough to win, but that number makes it extremely hard to lose. One of my iron rules of RCV is that votes never roll up as neatly as you think. The second and third choices of non-Frey and non-Hoch voters sure didn’t.
After the true also-ran candidates were bounced, Frey & Hoch picked up 1,421 votes to Not-Frey and Not-Hoch’s 1,498.
Among the major candidates, Levy-Armstrong becomes a key figure for reasons I’ll discuss in a bit. When she was eliminated, Hoch fell to fourth, but Frey-Hoch still gained 4,572 votes to Not-Frey-Hoch’s 9,498. The race got closer, but Frey-Hoch still held a comfortable 52,234 to 47,539 lead.
In 2017, Levy-Armstrong knit together a coalition of North Side voters (Minneapolis’s Blackest area by far, though municipal voters are typically whiter than the area’s population) plus southside & university area liberals and other people of color. Frey has loudly campaigned on the North Side, and could expect to pick up Levy-Armstrong’s anti-progressive votes (she backed lefty champion Ilhan Omar’s primary opponent in 2020 and is against Question 2 in 2021). Meanwhile, Nezhad & Knuth have to hope the lefty part of Levy-Armstrong’s 2017 bloc follows ideology more than her personally.
Remember what I said about RCV votes not rolling up so neatly. Here’s what happened when Hoch was eliminated — Frey took 60% … but now Dehn+Hodges have many more votes (54,233) than Frey (39,368). Upset brewing!
Yet, no. Hodges voters essentially elected Frey, even though Dehn got marginally more votes. Again, votes did not roll up as neatly as Hodges-Dehn fans like myself hoped.
So is it “abandon hope all Nezhad & Knuth fans”? Of course not! One reason why:
There are only 3 major-major candidates this time, and Minneapolis only lets you rank 3. If you look at that 2017 last round above, Frey picked up 7,348 Hodges votes; Dehn picked up 7,613 Hodges votes … but 11,914 ballots were “exhausted” — Hodges voters either didn’t rank a third choice or the candidates they did rank (Levy-Pounds, Hoch, any also-ran) had already been eliminated.
In 2017, five candidates scored 10%+ in first-round first choices. If you believe the Frey poll, only three will next week. Unlike 2017, the two not named Jacob Frey have explicitly allied, urging their supporters to rank each other 1–2.
Again, RCV votes never roll up neatly, but there’s ample reason to believe fewer non-Frey ballots will be exhausted and a higher percentage will go against him.
Of course, there are other, potentially larger factors that cut different ways including:
- New voters! There’s little doubt 2021 turnout will be up. I know my side hoped Question 3 (Rent Stabilization) would motivate non-municipal voters to turn out this time. However, chatter- and coverage-wise at least, Question 2 (Public Safety) has drowned out everything, and both well-funded sides could see a burst.
- Better organizing! Nezhad especially has a grassroots mentality, although there were plenty of lefty grassrooters on the ground in 2017. However, both Frey challengers this time have less money. Meanwhile Team Frey & All of Mpls have many times the money & a better grassroots component than most rich folks do, including paying North Side Black anti-progressives to organize a very visible group of black canvassers. At least they’re getting money to the North Side ….
- Polls are bullshit! RCV is notoriously tricky to poll, and Frey’s side is really the only campaign that can afford it. So again, I’m not claiming the poll I used as a launch pad for this piece is accurate — I genuinely don’t know. It’s certainly possible voter attitudes toward Frey & Not-Frey have changed dramatically in four years.
- Media coverage. The Star Tribune Opinion Page — which endorsed Betsy Hodges in 2013 but picked Frey in 2017 — has swung even more in his direction, to put it politely. Meanwhile, most people get their news from TV; with the crime rate up, Minneapolis safety is a constant drumbeat. TV follows print, and with the state’s largest newspaper insisting it’s the City Council’s fault, somehow this feels like it benefits the mayor who is actually in charge of the police & public safety.
Who do I think will win? I DON’T KNOW, MY PREDICTIONS SUCK. Instead, please reward this piece and spend the next few days phonecalling or doorknocking for your candidates so your civic dreams can be realized. For me, they include:
- Mayor: Kate Knuth
- Mayor: Sheila Nezhad
- Yes4Minneapolis (pro-Public Safety Amendment)
- Ward 1: Elliott Payne
- Ward 2: Cam Gordon or Robin Wonsley Worlobah (please rank both)
- Ward 3: Steve Fletcher
- Ward 4: Phillipe Cunningham
- Ward 5: Jeremiah Ellison
- Ward 7: Nick Kor
- Ward 9: Jason Chavez
- Ward 10: Aisha Chughtai or Katie Jones (please rank both)
- Ward 11: Jeremy Schroeder
- Ward 12: Andrew Johnson
- Ward 13: Mike Norton
- Parks 2: Eric Moran
- Parks 3: Becky Alper
- Parks 4: Jono Cowgill
- Parks 6: Risa Hustad
- Parks At-Large: Tom Olsen, Londel French
- Board of Estimate: Pine Salica, Samantha Pree-Stinson or Steve Brandt
